Real Estate: Nothing’s normal about this new normal
PATRICIA BORNS, firstname.lastname@example.org
10:34 a.m. EST November 25, 2015
(Photo: Patricia Borns/The News-Press)
With 300,000 new residents expected in 2016, Florida is Florida again, and the real estate market is roaring back. Or is it?
Yes and no, the three News-Press Market Watch experts say in this analysis of the third quarter of 2015. It’s a market unlike any they’ve seen, where you can be right or wrong, and some of the most spectacular wins seem to come from left field.
Land sales and development expert Randy Thibaut, the owner-founder of Land Solutions, Inc. who’s brokered over $1 billion in real estate transactions, reports market developments that surprise even him. Who would have guessed the year’s top builder to date would be the one with 1,100 permits for apartments and assisted living, or that Ave Maria would be Southwest Florida’s top-selling subdivision?
Thibaut dives into the year’s two biggest game changers now and in the future: a generation of delayed home-buyers, and the sudden availability of environmentally sensitive lands that were formerly off-limits.
Commercial real estate expert Stan Stouder, a partner with CRE Consultants, says it’s time to stop driving like it’s summer and make way for more and different drivers on the road. These aren’t the usual corporate investors; they’re individual users with cash on their hands and a unique mindset.
Stouder will tell you how to turn users into commercial investors, and how auctions – yes, auctions – can be your ally in an online market that has no off switch.
Residential real estate expert Denny Grimes likes the way the season is shaping up, not just in football. The president of Denny Grimes & Co. is thinking about everyone above the sub-tropic zone who really wanted to move to Florida but couldn’t sell their homes.
What a difference three years of improving home sales make, Grimes says. But there’s a psychology to timing this market, mark this expert’s advice.
And then, the question on everyone’s top of mind: how long will this last? It depends on what you think ‘this’ is:
Is it ‘everyone’s selling 200 homes a year’? ‘Build it and they will come’? ‘Demand is off the charts so we can push prices higher’?
Thibaut says, “Twelve thousand permits this year sounds good, but we pulled 44,000 permits in 2005.”
No, we’re not going back there, he and Grimes and Stouter agree. We’ll level off.
“And that’s okay,” Thibaut says. “We need to take a breather and get our acts together.”